Climate collapse caused more than half of the 68,000 heat deaths in the scorching European summer of 2022, a study found
Researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) found 38,000 fewer people would have died from heat if humans had not clogged the atmosphere with pollutants that act like a greenhouse and bake the planet. The death toll is about 10 times greater than the number of people killed in it Europe that year.
“Many see climate change as a future concern,” said lead author Thessa Beck. “Yet our findings highlight that this is already a pressing issue.”
The hot weather killed more women than men, more southern Europeans than northern Europeans and more older people than younger people. Scientists already knew carbon pollution made the heat waves hotter, but didn’t know how much it drove up the death toll.
They found that 56% of the heat-related deaths could have been avoided if the world had not been heated by the burning of fossil fuels and the destruction of nature. The share has fluctuated between 44% and 54% in the previous six years.
Even small increases in temperatures can have devastating impacts on public health, says Emily Theokritoff, a researcher at Imperial College London who was not involved in the study. “This result makes sense – heat-related deaths increase rapidly as temperatures move beyond the limits to which people are acclimated.”
Europe is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, but doctors warn its hospitals are not prepared to cope with the consequences. The rise in temperatures forces more people to endure the scorching summer heat that pushes their bodies into overdrive, even as it reduces exposure to bitter winter cold that leaves them too weak to fight disease.
Scientists project the lives lost by warmer summers in Europe will exceed those saved by cooler winters if the planet warms more than 2C above pre-industrial levels. Last week the UN Environment Program warned the world was on track to warm by 3C by the end of the century.
The dangers of extreme heat are even greater in Africa, Asia and South America, but a lack of data has limited studies of how it affects human health, Beck said.
“A common misconception is that only extreme temperatures pose a serious risk,” she said. “However, our study, along with previous research, shows that even moderate heat can lead to heat-related deaths, especially among more vulnerable populations.”
Scientists previously used heat and health data for 35 European countries to estimate how many more people die because of hot weather. In the new study, they ran the model with temperatures for a hypothetical world in which humans did not heat the planet.
They found climate change was behind 22,501 heat deaths in women and 14,026 heat deaths in men.
Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a researcher at Imperial College London, who was not involved in the study, said the authors may have overestimated the effect of heat on deaths because they did not take into account how people adapted.
He said: “Previous studies have reported a decrease in heat death impact over time, due to factors including infrastructure changes and improved health care.”
To stay safe in the heat, doctors recommend drinking water, staying indoors during the hottest parts of the day and looking after older neighbors and family who live alone. Governments can save lives by creating action plans for hot weather, designing cities with more green space and less concrete, and reducing pollution.
“Heat can be very dangerous to the heart, especially for older people,” Beck said.